Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:06:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d42…b093 other 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 324d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$43 (+1%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%50W / 75L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$4
14 days+$68
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$43
other 32% +$1
politics 23% +$2
finance 4% +$1
sports 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 0% +$1
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.8% -10.3% 36% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 36 +0.8% -8.8% 33% 3% -8.3%
≤90d 49 +0.5% -9.1% 43% 2% -8.9%
all 125 +0.4% -9.2% 40% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 2% -9.0%
10% -17.9% 1% -17.7%
15% -25.8% 1% -25.6%
20% -33.1% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

324d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses50 / 75
Open positions0
Markets (closed)125 / 125
History coverage324d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 125 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $199 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $129 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $125 +$3 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $141 −$3 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $128 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $132 +$1 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $127 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $127 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $58 −$6 -11%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $205 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $132 +$2 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $370 +$1 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $305 +$5 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $63 +$64 +103%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $7 $0 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $35 −$2 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $24 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $77 −$2 -3%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 31 $154 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $90 −$12 -13%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $78 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $95 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $80 −$3 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $33 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $171 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $1 $0 -17%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $76 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $3 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $8 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $7 −$2 -23%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $90 −$2 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $8 $0 +2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $8 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $97 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $178 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $580 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 26 $18 +$1 +4%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 26 $347 +$8 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $170 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $169 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $127 +$1 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $75 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $552 +$1 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $551 +$1 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $550 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Mar 23 $45 −$7 -15%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 16 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $28 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $32 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $42 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $13 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $85 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $37 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $18 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $38 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $94 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $11 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $18 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $101 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $6 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $30 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $93 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 78¢ $129 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 76¢ $30 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 76¢ $95 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $138 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $141 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $40 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $88 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $128 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $51 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $77 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $32 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $94 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 477 history records