Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:46:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d41…31de crypto 229 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$716 (-9%) realized −$2,540 · open +$1,824
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%79W / 137L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,834now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 58d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,029
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +92.1% +73.8% 78% 67% +99.2%
≤30d 9 +92.1% +73.8% 78% 67% +99.2%
≤90d 216 -6.9% -15.7% 37% 35% -6.2%
all 216 -6.9% -15.7% 37% 35% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 35% -6.2%
10% -23.8% 34% -15.2%
15% -31.2% 32% -23.4%
20% -37.9% 31% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$25 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$3,834
Realized−$2,540
Unrealized+$1,824
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses79 / 137
Open positions13
Markets (closed)216 / 229
History coverage58d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 216 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 13¢ 50¢ $300 $1,104 +$804 (+268%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 25¢ 50¢ $300 $594 +$294 (+98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 31¢ 50¢ $300 $476 +$176 (+59%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Down 34¢ 50¢ $263 $387 +$124 (+47%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 18¢ 50¢ $100 $273 +$173 (+173%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Up 41¢ 50¢ $200 $244 +$44 (+22%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 33¢ 50¢ $104 $157 +$53 (+51%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 23¢ 50¢ $74 $155 +$82 (+111%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 35¢ 50¢ $100 $141 +$41 (+41%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 49¢ 50¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Down 37¢ 50¢ $50 $67 +$17 (+34%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Down 31¢ 50¢ $20 $32 +$12 (+60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 136 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $38 +$48 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $105 +$276 +263%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $313 +$466 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $105 +$276 +263%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $104 +$132 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $48 +$43 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 09 $42 −$41 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 09 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 09 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 09 $127 −$40 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 09 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 09 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 09 $93 −$90 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 09 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 09 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 09 $52 +$62 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 09 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 09 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 09 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 09 $14 +$24 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 09 $55 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 09 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 09 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 09 $31 +$60 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 09 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 09 $52 −$21 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 09 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 09 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 09 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 09 $26 +$40 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 09 $17 +$20 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 09 $52 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 09 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 09 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 09 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 08 $32 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 08 $52 +$54 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 08 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 08 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 08 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 08 $32 +$95 +302%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 08 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 08 $44 −$43 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $208 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $38 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $21 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $52 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $314 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $316 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $275 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $313 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $187 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $131 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $48 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $42 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $53 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $42 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $115 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $85 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,834.25 · official $3,834.25 (match) · 334 history records