Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:55:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3D
0x3d41…e3dd
crypto · 897 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$987 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$996 · open +$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$58
Realized−$996
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses498 / 395
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)893 / 897
History coverage23d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day131.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 4 History 893 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$186
7 days−$436
14 days−$652
30 days−$996
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $35 $51 +$16 (+47%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 93¢ 22¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-77%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 7AM ET? No 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 12, 7AM ET? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 12, 6AM ET? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 12, 5AM ET? No 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 12, 8AM ET? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 6AM ET? No 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin above 63,000 on June 12, 10AM ET? Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$6 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 12, 9AM ET? Jun 12 $11 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 12, 9AM ET? Jun 12 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 8AM ET? Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 12, 8AM ET? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 7AM ET? Jun 12 $35 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 12, 7AM ET? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 12, 6AM ET? Jun 12 $41 −$6 -15%
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 12, 6AM ET? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 6AM ET? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 12, 5AM ET? Jun 12 $9 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 5AM ET? Jun 12 $31 −$1 -2%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin above 63,000 on June 11, 10AM ET? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 61,400 on June 10, 9AM ET? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -81%
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 9, 2PM ET? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 10, 2PM ET? Jun 11 $7 −$5 -67%
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 10, 12PM ET? Jun 11 $4 −$3 -84%
Bitcoin above 61,400 on June 9, 3PM ET? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 61,000 on June 9, 1PM ET? Jun 11 $22 −$2 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 84% −$806
sports 7% −$38
weather 5% −$164
other 2% +$4
world 1% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $7 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin above 63,000 on June 12, 10AM ET? SELL Yes 74¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin above 63,000 on June 12, 10AM ET? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $6 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $11 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $0 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $1 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 335 -17.4% -25.3% 45% 33% -17.1%
≤30d 893 -9.2% -17.8% 56% 32% -16.5%
≤90d 893 -9.2% -17.8% 56% 32% -16.5%
all 893 -9.2% -17.8% 56% 32% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover131.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 32% -16.5%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 22% -24.5%
15% -32.9% 14% -31.8%
20% -39.5% 9% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.18 · official $59.03 (match) · 3500 history records