Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:25:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3D 0x3d3e…584a crypto 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+15%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +17.2% +6.0% 40% 30% +17.7%
≤30d 10 +17.2% +6.0% 40% 30% +17.7%
≤90d 10 +17.2% +6.0% 40% 30% +17.7%
all 10 +17.2% +6.0% 40% 30% +17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.0% 30% +17.7%
10% -4.1% 30% +6.4%
15% -13.4% 30% -3.9%
20% -21.9% 30% -13.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$6 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$35 +329%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $16 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$7 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$15 +296%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records