Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:55:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

3D 0x3d3c…d9b0 sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1,058 (+9%) realized +$885 · open +$173

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate59%10W / 7L

Whale WR80%big bets

Drawdown51%max

Avg bet$669per market

Trades / day3.6pace

Fees−$84est.

Kalshi-fit56%portable

Net worth$1,487now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)-11.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	-1.8%	-11.2%	59%	47%	+1.9%
≤30d	17	-1.8%	-11.2%	59%	47%	+1.9%
≤90d	17	-1.8%	-11.2%	59%	47%	+1.9%
all	17	-1.8%	-11.2%	59%	47%	+1.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.6 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-11.2%	47%	+1.9%
10%	-19.7%	47%	-7.9%
15%	-27.4%	35%	-16.8%
20%	-34.5%	24%	-25.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 17% · top 2 33% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -2% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR 80% (≥$784) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -21% → late +16% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$366 vs −$385 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.36 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$1,487

Realized+$885

Unrealized+$173

Win rate (resolved)59%

Wins / losses10 / 7

Whale WR (big bets)80%

Est. fees paid−$84

Open positions1

Markets (closed)17 / 18

History coverage6d

Avg bet$669

Trades / day3.6

Drawdown51%

Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5	Under	88¢	100¢	$1,314	$1,487	+$173 (+13%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$1,013	−$1,000	-99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$277	+$458	+165%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$509	+$602	+118%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime?	Jun 17	$509	−$500	-98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$717	−$423	-59%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5	Jun 17	$973	+$237	+24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$650	+$325	+50%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$1,224	+$417	+34%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$1,102	+$80	+7%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$102	−$100	-98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$694	+$551	+79%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	Jun 14	$245	−$240	-98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$506	−$316	-62%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$701	+$50	+7%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	Jun 14	$113	−$113	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$606	+$611	+101%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$784	+$326	+42%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	88¢	$1,318	1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	55¢	$1,013	10h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	87¢	$1,111	19h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	39¢	$509	19h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	37¢	$277	20h
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	38¢	$509	21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	18¢	$294	22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	42¢	$717	22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	80¢	$973	25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$650	42h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	74¢	$1,224	2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	93¢	$1,102	2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	32¢	$102	3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	55¢	$694	3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	BUY Yes	33¢	$245	3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	21¢	$180	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$752	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	93¢	$701	3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	57¢	$506	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,217	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	49¢	$606	5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$113	6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	70¢	$784	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,486.62 · official $1,486.62 (match) · 32 history records