Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d3b…28bd sports 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$616 (-16%) realized −$513 · open −$103
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%28W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$570
other 22% −$225
crypto 5% −$39
world 3% +$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -25.8% -32.8% 37% 37% -26.3%
≤30d 76 -25.8% -32.8% 37% 37% -26.3%
≤90d 76 -25.8% -32.8% 37% 37% -26.3%
all 76 -25.8% -32.8% 37% 37% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.8% 37% -26.3%
10% -39.3% 37% -33.4%
15% -45.1% 37% -39.8%
20% -50.5% 28% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$42 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$297
Realized−$513
Unrealized−$103
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses28 / 48
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions6
Markets (closed)76 / 82
History coverage5d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 50¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jordan 56¢ 62¢ $85 $94 +$9 (+11%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Austria 67¢ 64¢ $68 $64 −$4 (-5%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 40¢ 38¢ $32 $30 −$2 (-6%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? No 31¢ 18¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-44%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 40¢ 2¢ $100 $4 −$96 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $88 +$65 +73%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $13 +$25 +188%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $67 −$66 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $34 −$34 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $66 −$65 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 −$39 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $62 −$61 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 +$103 +101%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $38 −$37 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $64 −$63 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $37 +$14 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 +$91 +90%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $67 +$70 +105%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $66 −$65 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $64 −$63 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $34 +$17 +50%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $66 −$65 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $83 −$82 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $56 +$69 +124%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $35 +$15 +42%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $66 +$158 +238%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $46 +$109 +238%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $38 −$37 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $64 −$63 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $64 +$73 +114%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $37 +$13 +36%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $56 −$55 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $86 −$85 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $85 +$68 +79%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $16 −$16 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $85 −$84 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $66 +$36 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $65 +$87 +134%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $86 −$85 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $88 +$65 +73%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $36 +$15 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $102 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $15 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 56¢ $86 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $101 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 40¢ $33 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 67¢ $69 4h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 42¢ $67 9h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 66¢ $34 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $36 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $66 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $4 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $36 10h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $62 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $13 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $88 10h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 36¢ $38 28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $64 28h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 49¢ $102 28h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $66 35h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 35h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $64 35h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $37 35h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $101 35h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $36 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $66 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 37h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 48¢ $67 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $297.22 · official $449.30 · 121 history records