trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 19 | -88.0% | -89.2% | 5% | 5% | -98.6% |
| all | 28 | -34.0% | -40.3% | 32% | 32% | +34.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -40.3% | 32% | +34.7% |
| 10% | -46.0% | 25% | +21.8% |
| 15% | -51.3% | 18% | +10.1% |
| 20% | -56.0% | 14% | -0.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? | Yes | 25¢ | 24¢ | $1,500 | $1,459 | −$41 (-3%) |
| Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner | G2 | 38¢ | 100¢ | $500 | $1,330 | +$830 (+166%) |
| Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? | Yes | 17¢ | 16¢ | $600 | $566 | −$34 (-6%) |
| Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 9¢ | $300 | $287 | −$13 (-4%) |
| Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner | G2 | 27¢ | 22¢ | $150 | $119 | −$31 (-20%) |
| Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 5¢ | $50 | $57 | +$7 (+14%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET | Mar 28 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET | Mar 28 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Mar 28 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Ethereum close above $3400 on July 31? | Mar 28 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Solana dip to $140 in July? | Mar 28 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will "Smurfs" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 30? | Mar 28 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 15-21? | Mar 28 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| GENIUS Act signed into law in 2025? | Mar 28 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Mar 28 | $1,000 | −$1,000 | -100% |
| Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? | Mar 28 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Ethereum close above $3200 on July 31? | Mar 28 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? | Mar 28 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? | Mar 28 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? | Mar 28 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $126K July 14–20? | Mar 28 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in July? | Mar 28 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? | Mar 28 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? | Mar 28 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET | Mar 28 | $10 | +$13 | +128% |
| Elon no longer world's richest before 2026? | Sep 20 | $500 | +$2,411 | +482% |
| MicroStrategy purchases >5000 BTC July 15-21? | Jul 21 | $50 | +$37 | +75% |
| Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas to | Jul 17 | $10 | +$11 | +111% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $112K July 14–20? | Jul 17 | $50 | +$7 | +14% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $115K July 14–20? | Jul 17 | $50 | +$11 | +23% |
| Bitcoin above $118,000 on July 18? | Jul 17 | $50 | +$14 | +28% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on July 17? | Jul 17 | $50 | +$20 | +40% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? | Jul 17 | $20 | +$3 | +15% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on July 17? | Jul 17 | $20 | −$14 | -69% |