Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:46:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d38…b49c crypto 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 338d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,092 (+20%) realized +$373 · open +$719
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%9W / 19L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$3,819now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$2,338
economics 19% −$1,011
sports 13% +$780
crypto 12% −$250
culture 1% −$40
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-40.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 19 -88.0% -89.2% 5% 5% -98.6%
all 28 -34.0% -40.3% 32% 32% +34.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.3% 32% +34.7%
10% -46.0% 25% +21.8%
15% -51.3% 18% +10.1%
20% -56.0% 14% -0.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -98% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt +49% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$281 vs −$76 · ×3.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

338d coverage
Net worth$3,819
Realized+$373
Unrealized+$719
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses9 / 19
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions6
Markets (closed)28 / 34
History coverage338d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1,500 $1,459 −$41 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner G2 38¢ 100¢ $500 $1,330 +$830 (+166%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $600 $566 −$34 (-6%)
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $300 $287 −$13 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner G2 27¢ 22¢ $150 $119 −$31 (-20%)
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum close above $3400 on July 31? Mar 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? Mar 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Will "Smurfs" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 30? Mar 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 15-21? Mar 28 $20 −$20 -100%
GENIUS Act signed into law in 2025? Mar 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Mar 28 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum close above $3200 on July 31? Mar 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Mar 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $126K July 14–20? Mar 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in July? Mar 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Mar 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 28 $10 +$13 +128%
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026? Sep 20 $500 +$2,411 +482%
MicroStrategy purchases >5000 BTC July 15-21? Jul 21 $50 +$37 +75%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas to Jul 17 $10 +$11 +111%
Will Bitcoin dip to $112K July 14–20? Jul 17 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $115K July 14–20? Jul 17 $50 +$11 +23%
Bitcoin above $118,000 on July 18? Jul 17 $50 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 17? Jul 17 $50 +$20 +40%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Jul 17 $20 +$3 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down on July 17? Jul 17 $20 −$14 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $512 58m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 27¢ $153 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $509 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $1,021 1h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 1h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 1h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 83d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $10 83d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $23 83d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 83d
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026? SELL No 61¢ $2,153 272d
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026? SELL No 48¢ $239 275d
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026? SELL No 50¢ $252 275d
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026? SELL No 53¢ $266 275d
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026? BUY No 10¢ $500 281d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 18¢ $500 281d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 18¢ $500 281d
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY Yes $4 336d
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY Yes $1 336d
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY Yes $1 336d
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? BUY Yes 18¢ $50 336d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,818.68 · official $3,818.68 (match) · 80 history records