Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:06:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3D 0x3d29…ddd5 crypto 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$35 (+2%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate34%28W / 55L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$23
14 days+$23
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% −$1
economics 19% $0
tech 15% −$1
crypto 11% −$4
politics 10% $0
finance 8% $0
world 7% +$4
sports 3% +$33
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +64.0% +48.4% 14% 14% -1.2%
≤30d 13 +34.5% +21.7% 38% 8% -3.3%
≤90d 66 -0.6% -10.0% 27% 9% -8.6%
all 83 +8.5% -1.9% 34% 14% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 14% -7.8%
10% -11.3% 12% -16.6%
15% -19.8% 10% -24.7%
20% -27.7% 7% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×4.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses28 / 55
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage131d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $10 $0 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 25 $181 $0 -0%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$28 +550%
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? Jun 23 $10 $0 -1%
Will Paul Dennett win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? Jun 22 $15 $0 -0%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? Jun 21 $20 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $15 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $40 $0 -0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k? May 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in May? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 22 $15 $0 -2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy bo May 18 $25 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $25 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 13 $25 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 09 $30 $0 -0%
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $61 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $25 $0 -0%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? May 02 $32 −$1 -4%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 29 $30 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 29 $30 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? Apr 29 $11 $0 -0%
Crude Oil all time high by April 30? Apr 29 $22 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Apr 26 $32 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap Apr 23 $5 $0 -0%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeti Apr 23 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? Apr 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? Apr 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 15 $51 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? Apr 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $33 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 10 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 10 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 10 $4 +$2 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $10 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $30 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $30 6h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $10 47h
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? SELL No 98¢ $10 47h
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY No 99¢ $10 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3d
Will Paul Dennett win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? SELL No 100¢ $15 3d
Will Paul Dennett win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? BUY No 100¢ $15 4d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 4d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 14d
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $5 14d
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $5 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $15 25d
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $10 25d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 25d
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 28d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 28d
GTA VI released before June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 28d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $11 28d
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k? BUY No 100¢ $4 34d
GTA VI released before June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 34d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $11 34d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in May? SELL No 100¢ $10 34d
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL Yes 93¢ $15 34d
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 94¢ $15 35d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 35d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $25 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.98 · official $39.98 (match) · 227 history records