Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d28…4bdc world 71 markets active 12h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$25 (-8%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate40%25W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$21
14 days−$24
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$10
other 17% −$8
politics 12% +$2
finance 10% −$1
tech 4% −$4
crypto 4% −$3
culture 2% −$1
sports 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -52.8% -57.3% 14% 7% -45.6%
≤30d 63 -15.8% -23.9% 40% 16% -17.8%
≤90d 63 -15.8% -23.9% 40% 16% -17.8%
all 63 -15.8% -23.9% 40% 16% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 16% -17.8%
10% -31.1% 8% -25.7%
15% -37.8% 6% -32.9%
20% -43.9% 2% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses25 / 38
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)63 / 71
History coverage29d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 37¢ 46¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+26%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat? No 58¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? No 72¢ 69¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? No $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027? No 91¢ 85¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Jun 16 $6 $0 +8%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -73%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -83%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -84%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $8 −$4 -53%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -52%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -41%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -74%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $8 $0 -4%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +18%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $20 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $5 $0 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $5 +$2 +39%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $13 +$3 +25%
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $12 $0 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $8 −$1 -9%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 08 $3 $0 +12%
Will Jacob deGrom win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? Jun 08 $2 $0 +9%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027? Jun 08 $3 $0 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 07 $12 $0 +4%
Will Kendrick Lamar release an album in 2026? Jun 07 $3 −$1 -32%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 07 $3 −$1 -39%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO Jun 07 $5 −$3 -61%
Will George Pickens play for Cleveland Browns in 2026-27? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 05 $3 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $27 −$3 -10%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $2 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $3 +$1 +45%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $3 −$1 -18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? May 30 $5 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? May 25 $3 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? May 25 $3 $0 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? May 25 $3 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? May 25 $3 $0 -4%
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? May 25 $1 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? May 24 $3 $0 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? May 24 $3 $0 +0%
SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day? May 24 $3 $0 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 24 $5 $0 +3%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 24 $3 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? May 24 $3 $0 +5%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1 $0 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $3 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes $2 11h
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY No $2 11h
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat? BUY No 58¢ $3 11h
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? BUY No 72¢ $3 11h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 11h
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat? SELL No 52¢ $3 11h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? SELL No 80¢ $4 11h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL Yes 81¢ $5 11h
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL No $1 11h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes $0 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 2d
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $2 5d
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat? BUY No 60¢ $3 5d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? BUY No 64¢ $3 5d
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 5d
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY No $2 5d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 83¢ $5 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 32¢ $5 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 5d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL Yes $2 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $4 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 94¢ $4 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.62 · official $18.71 (match) · 176 history records