Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:36:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d20…05c8 crypto 136 markets active 3d ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$182 (-20%) realized −$182 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate41%56W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day72.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$72
other 27% −$51
sports 11% −$95
world 1% +$2
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -22.5% -29.8% 34% 23% -35.2%
≤30d 136 -13.6% -21.8% 41% 29% -31.4%
≤90d 136 -13.6% -21.8% 41% 29% -31.4%
all 136 -13.6% -21.8% 41% 29% -31.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.8% 29% -31.4%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 24% -37.9%
15% -36.1% 19% -43.9%
20% -42.4% 14% -49.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$182
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses56 / 80
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)136 / 136
History coverage6d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day72.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 136 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -28%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $86 −$85 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $110 −$105 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$58 +114%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $9 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$10 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -28%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $11 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -92%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$23 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +3%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Alexis Vega: 1+ assists Jun 11 $1 −$1 -71%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $4 −$3 -70%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +101%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $9 +$3 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 23¢ $6 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $86 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 537 history records