Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:25:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3D 0x3d20…8770 weather 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$106 (+8%) realized +$167 · open −$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%44W / 54L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$95
14 days−$115
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 78% −$61
sports 18% +$146
other 3% −$5
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +26.6% +14.6% 60% 60% -33.8%
≤30d 14 +98.1% +79.2% 57% 57% -3.0%
≤90d 98 +24.6% +12.7% 45% 43% +1.4%
all 98 +24.6% +12.7% 45% 43% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.7% 43% +1.4%
10% +1.9% 38% -8.3%
15% -7.9% 34% -17.2%
20% -17.0% 29% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +44% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$7 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$167
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses44 / 54
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)98 / 102
History coverage74d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or higher on July 1? No 56¢ 56¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on July 1? No 33¢ 34¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C or below on July 1? No 80¢ 68¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 29? No 58¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C or higher on June 29? Jun 29 $61 +$44 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 27? Jun 27 $20 +$19 +91%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $25 +$11 +45%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 25? Jun 26 $10 +$15 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 23? Jun 26 $10 +$18 +177%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $156 −$152 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 25? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 22? Jun 23 $10 +$14 +133%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 23? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 22? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $111 +$18 +17%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$133 +1290%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $10 +$8 +83%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5 May 21 $10 +$11 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on April 30? May 01 $10 +$5 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on April 30? Apr 30 $5 +$3 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on April Apr 30 $5 +$1 +19%
LeBron James: Points O/U 23.5 Apr 30 $10 +$7 +72%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 208.5 Apr 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on April 29? Apr 29 $5 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on Apri Apr 29 $5 +$15 +307%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 28? Apr 29 $5 +$17 +337%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 29 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C or higher on April 28? Apr 28 $5 +$5 +98%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ap Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 28? Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on Apr Apr 28 $5 +$9 +186%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 72°F or higher on April 27? Apr 28 $5 +$3 +59%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C or higher on April 27? Apr 27 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C or higher on April 27? Apr 27 $5 +$9 +184%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 65°F or below on April 26? Apr 27 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 88°F or higher on April 29? Apr 27 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on April 29 Apr 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 73°F or below on April 29? Apr 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 64°F or higher on April 26? Apr 27 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C or higher on April 26 Apr 26 $5 +$5 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 27? Apr 26 $5 −$1 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on April 26? Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on April Apr 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on April 28? Apr 26 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on Apri Apr 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 59°F or below on April 25? Apr 26 $5 +$4 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 62°F or higher on April 25? Apr 26 $5 +$2 +37%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $6 +$18 +307%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C or higher on April 25? Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on July 1? BUY No 33¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or higher on July 1? BUY No 56¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C or below on July 1? BUY No 80¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C or higher on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $106 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? BUY Yes 53¢ $31 46h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 29? BUY No 55¢ $31 46h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C or higher on June 29? BUY No 57¢ $31 46h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 46h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C or higher on June 29? BUY No 56¢ $31 2d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 29? BUY No 61¢ $31 2d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $37 2d
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C or below on June 26? BUY Yes 66¢ $29 3d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 27? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C or below on June 26? BUY Yes 39¢ $41 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C or below on June 26? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C or below on June 26? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C or below on June 26? BUY Yes 49¢ $26 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C or below on June 26? BUY Yes 74¢ $25 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 26? BUY No 68¢ $25 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 25? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 25? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 23? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 22? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 22? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 7d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 85¢ $111 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 7¢ $10 18d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 54¢ $10 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.22 · official $99.23 (match) · 205 history records