trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 18¢ | 16¢ | $50,179 | $44,737 | −$5,443 (-11%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? | May 31 | $6,006 | +$121 | +2% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | May 18 | $20,243 | +$8,038 | +40% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | Mar 22 | $9,200 | +$800 | +9% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? | Mar 22 | $40,221 | −$2,753 | -7% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Mar 08 | $176,043 | +$7,376 | +4% |
| Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech? | Feb 28 | $29,660 | −$29,660 | -100% |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-25? | Jan 26 | $100,000 | +$11,154 | +11% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - January 6, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET | Jan 06 | $5,000 | +$1,854 | +37% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET | Jan 03 | $3,000 | +$270 | +9% |
| Will Base launch a token in 2025? | Jan 03 | $159,968 | +$2,797 | +2% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 05 | $630,489 | +$48,542 | +8% |
| LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) | Nov 03 | $52,092 | +$3,213 | +6% |
| Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? | Nov 02 | $35,992 | +$16,090 | +45% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Oct 30 | $329,831 | +$3,692 | +1% |
| Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Jan 20 | $97,977 | −$97,977 | -100% |
| Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | Nov 06 | $11,600 | +$7,110 | +61% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 06 | $1,010,766 | +$794,019 | +79% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 06 | $1,407,041 | +$995,370 | +71% |
| Will Trump launch a coin before the election? | Oct 30 | $10,007 | −$10,007 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting? | Oct 03 | $17,997 | −$17,997 | -100% |
| Ethereum ETF approved by May 31? | May 25 | $100 | +$809 | +809% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | +20.9% | +9.4% | 100% | 50% | +18.6% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +10.9% | +0.3% | 75% | 25% | -2.1% |
| all | 21 | +37.4% | +24.3% | 76% | 38% | +28.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +24.3% | 38% | +28.4% |
| 10% ← realistic here | +12.4% | 33% | +16.2% |
| 15% | +1.6% | 33% | +4.9% |
| 20% | -8.4% | 19% | -5.4% |