Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:56:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3D
0x3d1d…9e61
weather · 926 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$834 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$677 · open −$156
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$60
Realized−$677
Unrealized−$156
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses39 / 352
Open positions123
Markets (closed)391 / 926
History coverage2d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1495.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 123 History 391 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$677
7 days−$677
14 days−$677
30 days−$677
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 12? No 100¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 13? No 99¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 12? No 95¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? No 90¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June 12? No 78¢ 82¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? No 78¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 12? No 65¢ 63¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? No 58¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? No 33¢ 35¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or below on June 12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or higher on June 12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or below on June 12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 12? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 22? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 27°C or below on May 27? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C or below on May 4? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 7? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 10? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 27°C or below on May 6? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 1? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C on May 26? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 52-53°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 29? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 28? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 7? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 15°C or below on April 27 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 4? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C or higher on April 29? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on May 15? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on May 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 3? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 22? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 15? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 29°C or below on May 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 30? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C or below on April 26? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on May 16? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 5? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 30? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 8? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 31? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 30? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on April 27? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 29? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 66-67°F on May 3? Jun 12 $0 +$2 +350%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 31? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 4? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 31? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on April 30? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 7? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 4? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 2? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 15°C on April 30? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on April 30? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on May 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on May 13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 31? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on June Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 29 Jun 12 $0 +$2 +2841%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C or below on May 24? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% −$262
other 1% −$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $5 1m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $5 1m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $5 1m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY No 78¢ $4 1m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 1m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 1m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 33¢ $2 1m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $5 2m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 2m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 65¢ $3 2m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June BUY No 78¢ $4 2m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 58¢ $3 2m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 2m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 2m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $5 10m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 51¢ $3 10m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 10m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $5 10m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 78¢ $4 10m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 10m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 10m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 77¢ $4 10m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 86°F or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 20m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? BUY No 55¢ $3 20m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? BUY No 77¢ $4 20m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? BUY No 71¢ $4 20m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $5 20m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 20m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 20m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 83¢ $4 23m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 391 -7.1% -16.0% 10% 10% -72.4%
≤30d 391 -7.1% -16.0% 10% 10% -72.4%
≤90d 391 -7.1% -16.0% 10% 10% -72.4%
all 391 -7.1% -16.0% 10% 10% -72.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1495.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 10% -72.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 10% -75.1%
15% -31.4% 10% -77.5%
20% -38.1% 9% -79.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.46 · official $60.46 (match) · 3500 history records