Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:32:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3D
0x3d1c…b28c
crypto · 65 markets active 1h ago
8.0score
+$1,697 +22%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,871 · open −$174
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,181
Realized+$1,871
Unrealized−$174
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses32 / 24
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions9
Markets (closed)56 / 65
History coverage83d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 9 History 56 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,017
7 days+$1,961
14 days+$1,961
30 days+$1,961
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 2.5 Over 26¢ 22¢ $250 $215 −$35 (-14%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $220 $208 −$12 (-6%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Over 11¢ 10¢ $200 $182 −$18 (-9%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $150 $146 −$4 (-3%)
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $160 $136 −$24 (-15%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Raphinha: 2+ goals Yes 8¢ 5¢ $100 $62 −$38 (-38%)
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 3 Switzerland? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $75 $59 −$16 (-22%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Over 48¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $127 $0 −$127 (-100%)
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $131 −$127 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $135 +$143 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $129 +$97 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$92 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$59 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $102 +$42 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $139 +$68 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$87 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $164 +$91 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $129 +$106 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $105 +$48 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $103 +$92 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $155 +$114 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $108 +$75 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $32 +$47 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $128 +$51 +40%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $348 +$527 +152%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $257 −$250 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $507 −$500 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $508 −$500 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $611 +$1,009 +165%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $77 −$75 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 11 $205 −$200 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $81 −$80 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $102 +$149 +146%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $814 +$1,017 +125%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $58 −$57 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 22 $25 −$25 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 22 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 22 $11 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Mar 22 $50 −$42 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 22 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Mar 22 $30 −$25 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 22 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Mar 22 $10 −$6 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 22 $15 +$10 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 22 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 22 $20 +$14 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 43% +$1,394
crypto 35% +$931
other 22% −$628
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $131 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $278 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $226 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $195 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $161 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $144 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $205 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $190 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $256 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +9.6% -0.8% 58% 58% +20.4%
≤30d 36 +9.6% -0.8% 58% 58% +20.4%
≤90d 56 -0.7% -10.1% 57% 52% +17.5%
all 56 -0.7% -10.1% 57% 52% +17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 52% +17.5%
10% -18.7% 52% +6.2%
15% -26.6% 48% -4.0%
20% -33.8% 38% -13.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,181.21 · official $1,181.21 (match) · 133 history records