Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d1b…a695 crypto 696 markets active 2d ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (216 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,131 (-13%) realized −$1,131 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate52%365W / 331L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day215.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$152
14 days−$623
30 days−$344
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$344
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (216 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 281 -8.3% -17.0% 48% 27% -14.0%
≤30d 696 -0.5% -9.9% 52% 40% -13.0%
≤90d 696 -0.5% -9.9% 52% 40% -13.0%
all 696 -0.5% -9.9% 52% 40% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover215.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 40% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 32% -21.4%
15% -26.4% 25% -29.0%
20% -33.6% 17% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,131
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses365 / 331
Open positions0
Markets (closed)696 / 696
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day215.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 696 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$3 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$3 -21%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$6 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$7 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$6 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +61%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$5 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $8 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $7 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $6 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records