Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:07:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3D
0x3d15…bbb0
sports · 468 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$51 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$65 · open −$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$71
Realized+$65
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses262 / 176
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions30
Markets (closed)438 / 468
History coverage15d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day56.5
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 30 History 438 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$1
14 days+$65
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Haiti 62¢ 60¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 61¢ 48¢ $7 $6 −$2 (-21%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 83¢ 80¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Morocco 69¢ 83¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+20%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Morocco 88¢ 95¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? No 75¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Under 91¢ 84¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? No 76¢ 64¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 66¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+51%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 78¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+21%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Yes 64¢ 76¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? No 78¢ 80¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? No 74¢ 74¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Indiana Fever 80¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? No 80¢ 74¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 No 80¢ 71¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Saigon Dino 58¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Spread: Hong Kong SAR (-2.5) Cambodia 93¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 79¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 81¢ 55¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-33%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +62%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $5 +$2 +42%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +57%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 +$2 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $7 −$4 -63%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +57%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 +$1 +27%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +29%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +46%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $2 $0 +24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +40%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +27%
Solana Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +60%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 13 $7 +$4 +53%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +60%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 +24%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$1 +26%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $5 +$1 +17%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Derry City FC vs. Bohemians Dublin FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +29%
Solana Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +25%
Will OC Safi win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +37%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 70% +$58
other 13% +$7
crypto 11% −$21
weather 3% −$2
finance 2% +$7
world 1% −$1
politics 1% +$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1 14m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $1 40m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 67¢ $1 42m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 46m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $1 58m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $2 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $4 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $4 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Morocco 88¢ $5 1h
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $1 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $2 1h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 61¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 2h
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Indiana Fever 80¢ $2 4h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 95¢ $1 4h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $4 4h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 74¢ $4 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 94¢ $1 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? BUY No 80¢ $2 6h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 6h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach - Game 3 Winner BUY Toronto KOI 61¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $2 7h
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 63¢ $2 7h
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 BUY RUSTEC 77¢ $2 9h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 90¢ $1 10h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $5 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $2 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 273 -0.4% -9.9% 75% 67% -9.4%
≤30d 438 -3.5% -12.7% 60% 53% -4.8%
≤90d 438 -3.5% -12.7% 60% 53% -4.8%
all 438 -3.5% -12.7% 60% 53% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover56.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 53% -4.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 45% -13.9%
15% -28.7% 28% -22.2%
20% -35.7% 13% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.82 · official $70.65 (match) · 1107 history records