Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:50:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d14…ee01 world 502 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,056 (-1%) realized −$4,274 · open −$2,782
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate59%280W / 197L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,853per market
Trades / day43.4pace
Fees−$1,885est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$16,972now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 71d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$331
sports 39% −$22,030
politics 9% +$909
other 8% −$5,186
crypto 1% −$1,224
tech 1% +$462
weather 0% −$327
finance 0% −$391
economics 0% −$10
culture 0% −$183
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.6% -10.1% 71% 4% -9.4%
≤30d 98 +36.3% +23.3% 55% 12% -9.8%
≤90d 477 +1.4% -8.2% 59% 16% -11.7%
all 477 +1.4% -8.2% 59% 16% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 16% -11.7%
10% -17.0% 11% -20.2%
15% ← realistic here -25.0% 8% -27.9%
20% -32.4% 6% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$938) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$281 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$16,972
Realized−$4,274
Unrealized−$2,782
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses280 / 197
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$1,885
Open positions25
Markets (closed)477 / 502
History coverage71d ⚠
Avg bet$1,853
Trades / day43.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 477 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 84¢ 88¢ $9,521 $10,039 +$518 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 53¢ 48¢ $3,760 $3,370 −$390 (-10%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Yes 88¢ 84¢ $880 $840 −$40 (-5%)
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? No 95¢ 89¢ $482 $454 −$29 (-6%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 89¢ 88¢ $445 $443 −$2 (-1%)
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 70¢ 48¢ $360 $248 −$112 (-31%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 3¢ 12¢ $64 $240 +$176 (+275%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Yes 40¢ 5¢ $1,735 $236 −$1,500 (-86%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 73¢ 43¢ $291 $171 −$120 (-41%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 49¢ 28¢ $284 $163 −$120 (-42%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $647 $152 −$495 (-76%)
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? Yes 80¢ 54¢ $197 $133 −$65 (-33%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? No 92¢ 63¢ $184 $126 −$58 (-32%)
Stripe IPO before 2027? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $69 $63 −$6 (-9%)
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? Yes 36¢ 17¢ $107 $51 −$56 (-52%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $134 $46 −$88 (-66%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $58 $45 −$13 (-23%)
Printr FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 95¢ 29¢ $104 $32 −$73 (-70%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $37 $31 −$6 (-17%)
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $214 $30 −$184 (-86%)
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 80¢ 26¢ $80 $26 −$54 (-68%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $52 $25 −$27 (-52%)
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $17 $10 −$8 (-44%)
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be less than 1.25T? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Will UAE replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $7,087 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $10,002 +$137 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $558 −$80 -14%
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? Jun 14 $99 $0 -0%
New pandemic in 2026? Jun 14 $134 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $167 −$4 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $268 +$12 +5%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? Jun 14 $1,767 +$21 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,705 +$1 +0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $390 −$9 -2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $2,239 +$44 +2%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1,108 +$2 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $291 +$9 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $845 +$51 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $124 +$20 +16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3,450 $0 +0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3,600 −$69 -2%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 10 $308 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 10 $265 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $263 +$7 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 08 $299 −$135 -45%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 08 $97 +$2 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Jun 08 $187 +$2 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Jun 08 $228 +$4 +2%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 08 $445 +$2 +0%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Jun 08 $456 +$11 +2%
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 08 $868 +$2 +0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 08 $938 +$47 +5%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Jun 07 $312 +$34 +11%
Printr FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 03 $385 −$8 -2%
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? Jun 03 $33 −$30 -91%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 03 $142 +$15 +11%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 03 $716 +$92 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $296 +$4 +2%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 01 $462 +$541 +117%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $12,892 −$1,282 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $3,002 +$211 +7%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 01 $15 $0 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $606 −$27 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $325 +$16 +5%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $11,645 −$274 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 31 $2,527 −$14 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 31 $154 −$138 -90%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $102 +$81 +80%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $16,798 −$45 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $1,588 −$100 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $545 −$278 -51%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $920 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $184 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 73¢ $44 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 73¢ $73 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 73¢ $115 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 73¢ $7 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 73¢ $52 2h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $445 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,402 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 53¢ $226 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 53¢ $197 8h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 88¢ $884 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,166 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 53¢ $40 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 53¢ $40 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 53¢ $678 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 100¢ $7,087 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 100¢ $7,087 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $820 9h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 77¢ $1,009 9h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 77¢ $52 9h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 77¢ $6,000 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $478 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $4,457 9h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 77¢ $33 9h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 77¢ $62 9h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 77¢ $146 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,971.89 · official $16,966.16 (match) · 3500 history records