Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:34:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d12…9640 crypto 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (155 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14 (-8%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%44W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day155.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (155 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -11.9% -20.3% 54% 52% -24.9%
≤30d 82 -11.9% -20.3% 54% 52% -24.9%
≤90d 82 -11.9% -20.3% 54% 52% -24.9%
all 82 -11.9% -20.3% 54% 52% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover155.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.3% 52% -24.9%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 51% -32.1%
15% -34.9% 30% -38.6%
20% -41.3% 11% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses44 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 82
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day155.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 82 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +24%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -8%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +47%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -36%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 237 history records