Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:35:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3D
0x3d12…4b82
sports · 206 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$90 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$80 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$229
Realized−$80
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses63 / 133
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions10
Markets (closed)196 / 206
History coverage29d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day54.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 10 History 196 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days−$73
14 days−$41
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $177 $181 +$4 (+2%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 97¢ 99¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 97¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? No 14¢ 8¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-41%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-53%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 21¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-90%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-92%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 3¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-42%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$14 -92%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$4 +34%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $3 +$1 +25%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +61%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 +$1 +58%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $184 +$26 +14%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $110 −$55 -50%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $3 $0 +1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $8 +$5 +62%
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -14%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 12 $1 $0 -29%
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? Jun 12 $2 $0 -22%
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Jun 12 $3 $0 -11%
Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June? Jun 12 $1 $0 -23%
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? Jun 12 $3 $0 -0%
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e Jun 12 $1 $0 -27%
Will England be the highest-scoring team in Group L during the Group S Jun 12 $2 $0 -6%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$2 +153%
Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $2.7B? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -14%
Will Kylian Mbappé record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA Jun 12 $1 $0 -21%
Will Kendrick Lamar release an album in 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -37%
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 12 $1 $0 -26%
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.125 Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 12 $1 $0 -7%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 12 $2 $0 -11%
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -10%
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 12 $1 $0 -31%
Will Casemiro score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -23%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -12%
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? Jun 12 $1 $0 +30%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 12 $1 $0 -18%
Will USA be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -38%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? Jun 12 $2 $0 -24%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
3Jane FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -74%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 12 $1 $0 -36%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 12 $1 $0 -26%
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? Jun 12 $1 $0 -23%
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime s Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Jun 12 $4 $0 -12%
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 12 $1 $0 -14%
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -45%
Will Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 73% −$27
other 9% −$14
politics 8% −$6
world 8% −$35
tech 2% −$5
finance 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 13m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 16¢ $1 27m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 11¢ $2 27m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 13¢ $2 27m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 23¢ $4 27m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 10¢ $1 34m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 3¢ $1 34m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 10¢ $1 48m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 19¢ $1 49m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 27¢ $1 50m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 27¢ $1 50m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 22¢ $0 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 21¢ $0 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 21¢ $0 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 21¢ $0 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 21¢ $0 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 21¢ $0 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 21¢ $0 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 21¢ $0 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 22¢ $0 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 22¢ $0 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 22¢ $0 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 23¢ $0 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 23¢ $0 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 24¢ $0 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 24¢ $0 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 24¢ $0 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 25¢ $0 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 25¢ $0 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 25¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 -14.5% -22.6% 18% 9% -16.7%
≤30d 196 -13.3% -21.6% 32% 15% -11.3%
≤90d 196 -13.3% -21.6% 32% 15% -11.3%
all 196 -13.3% -21.6% 32% 15% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover54.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.6% 15% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -29.1% 9% -19.8%
15% -35.9% 7% -27.5%
20% -42.2% 6% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $228.73 · official $228.73 (match) · 1646 history records