Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:31:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3D 0x3d0f…0c28 other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+1%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$418per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$1
other 45% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 8 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.4%
all 8 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage17d
Avg bet$418
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US military draft authorized in 2026? Jun 28 $464 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? Jun 28 $463 $0 +0%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? Jun 25 $464 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? Jun 25 $462 $0 +0%
Modi out by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $434 +$5 +1%
Russia coup attempt in 2026? Jun 18 $432 $0 +0%
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? Jun 11 $305 +$12 +4%
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? Jun 11 $317 −$12 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US military draft authorized in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $464 22m
US military draft authorized in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $464 1h
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $464 1h
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $463 4h
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? SELL No 95¢ $464 2d
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? BUY No 95¢ $464 2d
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $463 2d
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $462 3d
Modi out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $439 10d
Modi out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $434 10d
Russia coup attempt in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $423 10d
Russia coup attempt in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $9 10d
Russia coup attempt in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $432 10d
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? BUY No 96¢ $305 17d
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? SELL No 87¢ $305 17d
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $317 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records