Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:20:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3D 0x3d0d…35bd crypto 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -18.8% -26.5% 40% 20% -50.6%
≤30d 5 -18.8% -26.5% 40% 20% -50.6%
≤90d 5 -18.8% -26.5% 40% 20% -50.6%
all 5 -18.8% -26.5% 40% 20% -50.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 20% -50.6%
10% -33.5% 20% -55.3%
15% -40.0% 20% -59.6%
20% -45.8% 20% -63.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$15 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$11 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 24 $25 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records