Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:46:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d0a…0450 weather 85 markets active 6d ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (244 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$32 (-5%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate15%13W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day243.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
weather 69% −$36
economics 14% −$2
crypto 9% −$10
sports 3% −$4
other 2% −$1
world 1% $0
politics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (244 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -15.4% -23.5% 15% 6% -18.1%
≤30d 85 -16.6% -24.5% 15% 6% -17.5%
≤90d 85 -16.6% -24.5% 15% 6% -17.5%
all 85 -16.6% -24.5% 15% 6% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover243.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.5% 6% -17.5%
10% ← realistic here -31.7% 1% -25.4%
15% -38.3% 1% -32.6%
20% -44.4% 1% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses13 / 72
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 85
History coverage2d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day243.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 11 $8 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 11 $2 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $12 −$2 -15%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? Jun 11 $4 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 11 $6 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 11 $2 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? Jun 11 $8 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 11 $8 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 11 $8 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -15%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 11 $2 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Jun 11 $4 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 11 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 13? Jun 11 $2 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $8 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $8 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? Jun 11 $22 −$3 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $18 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 11 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 13? Jun 11 $4 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 11 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? Jun 11 $8 −$2 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? Jun 11 $15 −$3 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 11 $8 −$5 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 11 $4 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $15 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 11 $4 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 11 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June Jun 11 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $13 −$2 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June SELL Yes 65¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? SELL No 54¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? SELL Yes 52¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL No 95¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? SELL No 66¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL No 95¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL No 57¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 11? SELL No 95¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? SELL No 78¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June SELL No 53¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? SELL No 65¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? SELL No 78¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes 58¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 11? SELL No 73¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? SELL No 94¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? SELL No 64¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? SELL No 80¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? BUY No 53¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? SELL No 59¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 11? SELL No 63¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju SELL No 65¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? SELL No 81¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 74¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 13? SELL No 72¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? SELL No 54¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? SELL No 67¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? SELL No 64¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 66¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? SELL No 69¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 448 history records