Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:14:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3D 0x3d0a…1bd3 sports 167 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,403 (+21%) realized +$2,289 · open +$114
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%85W / 78L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$112est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,049now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$387
7 days+$515
14 days+$1,856
30 days+$2,656
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$1,026
other 27% +$459
crypto 3% +$286
politics 2% +$525
world 0% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +2.0% -7.7% 46% 46% +15.9%
≤30d 50 +36.6% +23.6% 60% 60% +37.9%
≤90d 163 +8.1% -2.2% 52% 52% +9.0%
all 163 +8.1% -2.2% 52% 52% +9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 52% +9.0%
10% -11.5% 52% -1.5%
15% -20.1% 52% -11.0%
20% -27.9% 50% -19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$52 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$1,049
Realized+$2,289
Unrealized+$114
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses85 / 78
Est. fees paid−$112
Open positions5
Markets (closed)163 / 167
History coverage68d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Manel Kape 61¢ 62¢ $315 $319 +$4 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 86¢ $200 $319 +$119 (+59%)
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Main Card) Christian Rodriguez 68¢ 66¢ $245 $240 −$5 (-2%)
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims) Karol Rosa 51¢ 50¢ $105 $104 −$1 (-1%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Under 42¢ 40¢ $70 $68 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-04-30? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $204 +$313 +154%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $203 +$155 +76%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 +$98 +97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$91 +90%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 +$168 +83%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $81 −$80 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $507 −$35 -7%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 +$136 +134%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $152 −$150 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 +$33 +66%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $152 +$163 +107%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $206 +$525 +255%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$168 +165%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $81 +$77 +95%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $152 +$120 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $253 +$208 +82%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $41 +$44 +109%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $61 −$60 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $102 +$116 +114%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $101 +$60 +60%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $102 +$111 +110%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $102 −$60 -59%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $101 +$74 +73%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $41 −$40 -98%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $71 +$32 +46%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $101 +$97 +95%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $41 +$55 +134%
Canada vs. Republic of Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $51 −$50 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $122 +$202 +165%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $152 +$142 +93%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $102 +$131 +129%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $202 +$131 +65%
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 1 - 0 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? May 28 $10 +$67 +650%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $51 +$58 +114%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 27 $61 +$41 +67%
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 2 - 0 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? May 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $61 +$39 +65%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 3.5 May 23 $101 −$100 -99%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 May 22 $102 +$125 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 61¢ $319 1h
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Christian Rodriguez 68¢ $247 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 42¢ $71 1h
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Karol Rosa 51¢ $107 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $31 16h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $51 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 59¢ $101 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $101 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $81 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $203 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 53¢ $507 7d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $152 7d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 7d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $102 7d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $84 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 99¢ $316 8d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $51 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $152 8d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $731 8d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $206 8d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $29 8d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1 8d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 100¢ $272 9d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 55¢ $152 9d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $51 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $51 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $203 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,049.13 · official $1,049.13 (match) · 269 history records