Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:40:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3D 0x3d0a…07c7 sports 481 markets active 2h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13,150 (+8%) realized +$13,123 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%275W / 205L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$357per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$1,377est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$506now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$434
7 days+$339
14 days+$304
30 days+$268
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$4,342
politics 13% +$6,538
other 5% +$764
world 0% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +14.4% +3.5% 77% 69% +10.1%
≤30d 21 -6.5% -15.4% 67% 62% +4.7%
≤90d 470 +2.2% -7.5% 57% 55% -3.6%
all 480 +3.0% -6.8% 57% 55% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 55% -3.4%
10% -15.8% 49% -12.6%
15% -23.9% 40% -21.1%
20% -31.4% 30% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$151 vs −$146 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$506
Realized+$13,123
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses275 / 205
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$1,377
Open positions1
Markets (closed)480 / 481
History coverage233d
Avg bet$357
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 480 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner TEAM VISION 95¢ 100¢ $479 $506 +$27 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $456 +$24 +5%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $349 +$106 +30%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $247 +$102 +41%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $130 +$116 +89%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $96 +$34 +36%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $46 +$31 +68%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $26 +$20 +76%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $33 +$18 +54%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $27 +$6 +23%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $57 −$57 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $21 +$14 +64%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $22 +$3 +13%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $8 +$2 +21%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $35 −$35 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 01 $27 +$5 +18%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner May 13 $772 −$772 -100%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) May 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs G2 - Map 1 Winner May 13 $50 +$21 +41%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic - Map 2 Winner May 13 $30 +$26 +86%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs M80 - Map 2 Winner May 13 $51 +$82 +161%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) May 13 $56 +$22 +40%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 13 $30 +$20 +67%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) May 13 $20 +$16 +79%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) May 13 $71 +$25 +36%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 13 $25 −$2 -7%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner May 10 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Gro May 10 $56 −$56 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs 1win (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs May 10 $231 −$231 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 10 $76 −$76 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs 1win - Game 1 Winner May 08 $1,668 −$1,439 -86%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 08 $4,391 −$1,156 -26%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anastasia Potapova vs Karolina Muchova May 08 $41 +$47 +115%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Gro May 08 $36 +$39 +109%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Caty McNally vs Iga Swiatek May 08 $35 +$10 +29%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Lynx (BO3) - European Pro League Playoff May 08 $36 +$90 +252%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Arnaldi May 08 $41 +$53 +131%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner May 08 $61 +$84 +137%
LoL: NRG Esports vs CCG Esports (BO3) - North American Challengers Lea May 08 $37 −$37 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres May 08 $91 +$22 +24%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $2,132 +$256 +12%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers May 08 $111 +$57 +52%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 08 $73 +$85 +116%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $31 −$31 -100%
Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 3 Winner May 08 $82 −$82 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 94¢ $225 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 96¢ $15 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 95¢ $240 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner SELL TEAM VISION 100¢ $480 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 95¢ $255 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 95¢ $200 3h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $455 3h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Virtus.pro 76¢ $349 4h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $349 4h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 70¢ $247 5h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $247 5h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 52¢ $130 6h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL L1ga Team 100¢ $131 6h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 73¢ $96 7h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $76 25h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 59¢ $46 25h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $46 26h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 56¢ $26 27h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 38¢ $24 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 55¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $33 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $33 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 81¢ $27 4d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 53¢ $57 5d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $35 5d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 60¢ $21 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $15 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 99¢ $15 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $12 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $506.28 · official $506.28 (match) · 1301 history records