Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:36:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d06…1b02 world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$1
other 18% $0
politics 12% $0
sports 10% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 +0.2% -9.4% 30% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 10 +0.2% -9.4% 30% 0% -9.4%
all 36 +1.1% -8.5% 33% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 6% -9.5%
10% -17.3% 3% -18.1%
15% -25.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage270d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $40 $0 -1%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $19 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $123 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $43 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 06 $28 $0 -0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Oct 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $23 −$1 -3%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $5 $0 -1%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Sumy by December 31? Oct 01 $1 $0 +23%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 30 $24 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 30 $26 −$1 -2%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 27 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $1 $0 +13%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 25 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $29 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 23 $2 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $40 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $1 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $38 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $22 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $18 8h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $39 14h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $7 15h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $31 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $10 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $19 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $40 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $40 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $40 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $40 47h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $42 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $42 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 13d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 13d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $9 13d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $40 14d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $39 15d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $40 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $40 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $44 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $43 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.17 · official $40.17 (match) · 112 history records