Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:05:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3D
0x3d03…9d52
world · 349 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$922 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$858 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,517
Realized+$858
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses163 / 81
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions119
Markets (closed)244 / 349
History coverage53d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day61.0
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 119 History 244 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$166
7 days+$217
14 days+$368
30 days+$602
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 89¢ 98¢ $361 $395 +$33 (+9%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $95 $93 −$2 (-2%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 84¢ 82¢ $81 $79 −$1 (-2%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 55¢ 62¢ $45 $51 +$6 (+14%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 84¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 95¢ 98¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+4%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 72¢ 66¢ $36 $33 −$3 (-8%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 97¢ 94¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 74¢ 87¢ $23 $27 +$4 (+18%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 91¢ 100¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 42¢ $19 $25 +$6 (+33%)
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 96¢ 96¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? No 68¢ 64¢ $24 $22 −$1 (-5%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Yes 82¢ 83¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $19 $19 +$1 (+3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 74¢ 76¢ $18 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No 94¢ 92¢ $19 $18 −$0 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+20%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 69¢ 89¢ $13 $16 +$4 (+28%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? Yes 81¢ 84¢ $15 $16 +$0 (+3%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 79¢ 96¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+21%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 97¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $8 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $22 +$7 +33%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $155 +$129 +83%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $25 +$32 +130%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $38 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Chris Stewart as the next Director of National Int Jun 11 $18 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 11 $9 −$8 -96%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +41%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $49 $0 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $14 +$1 +5%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $3 +$2 +97%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $16 $0 +2%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $9 $0 +2%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in May 2026? Jun 10 $8 $0 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +13%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 09 $5 $0 -1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $22 +$2 +10%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $3 $0 +3%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $6 +$2 +35%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $7 +$3 +34%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $30 $0 +1%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $32 +$8 +26%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $87 +$30 +35%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 +8%
Exact Score: Equatorial Guinea 0 - 0 Comoros? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rae Huang win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 08 $2 $0 -0%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $6 $0 +2%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $22 +$2 +11%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Bahrain (-1.5) Jun 08 $2 +$1 +47%
Bahrain vs. Syria: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $2 $0 +6%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 08 $268 +$13 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $15 −$3 -22%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $54 −$2 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $25 −$13 -54%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $9 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $9 $0 +5%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $6 +$6 +104%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $10 $0 +3%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? Jun 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $59 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 35% +$155
politics 29% +$299
other 17% +$57
crypto 13% +$189
sports 4% +$116
economics 1% +$31
culture 1% +$2
tech 0% +$7
finance 0% −$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 1m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 1m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $15 8m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 10m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 17m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $8 18m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 57¢ $3 20m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 20m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 20m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 21m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 21m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 36m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 36m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $14 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 76¢ $2 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $2 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +4.7% -5.3% 76% 33% +9.5%
≤30d 152 +7.7% -2.5% 70% 31% +4.0%
≤90d 244 +11.3% +0.7% 67% 32% +3.9%
all 244 +11.3% +0.7% 67% 32% +3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover61.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.7% 32% +3.9%
10% ← realistic here -8.9% 25% -6.1%
15% -17.7% 17% -15.1%
20% -25.8% 14% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,516.53 · official $1,515.32 (match) · 3500 history records