Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:07:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d01…dacf crypto 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$554 (-19%) realized −$554 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate41%54W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day23.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$376
other 26% −$246
sports 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 -12.0% -20.4% 40% 32% -28.7%
≤30d 133 -11.8% -20.2% 41% 32% -28.6%
≤90d 133 -11.8% -20.2% 41% 32% -28.6%
all 133 -11.8% -20.2% 41% 32% -28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.2% 32% -28.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 30% -35.4%
15% -34.8% 26% -41.7%
20% -41.2% 24% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$19 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$554
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses54 / 79
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)133 / 133
History coverage7d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 133 Trades
no open positions (76 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $53 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $53 +$15 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$17 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$18 +166%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $23 +$82 +365%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$54 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$48 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$8 +78%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$20 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$52 +327%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$12 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$23 +215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$40 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$17 +65%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$40 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $28 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $11 18h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 21h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 21¢ $23 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $80 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $16 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 197 history records