Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:43:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3D 0x3d01…76a8 crypto 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$558 (-11%) realized −$558 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate76%29W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$131
14 days−$131
30 days−$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$212
world 11% −$84
politics 5% −$126
other 4% −$84
finance 2% +$12
tech 2% −$30
sports 1% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -15.3% -23.4% 67% 33% -38.4%
≤30d 6 -15.3% -23.4% 67% 33% -38.4%
≤90d 38 -8.7% -17.4% 76% 32% -20.4%
all 38 -8.7% -17.4% 76% 32% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 32% -20.4%
10% -25.3% 8% -28.0%
15% -32.5% 0% -35.0%
20% -39.1% 0% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$94 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$558
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses29 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage81d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $61 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$10 +19%
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? Jun 18 $49 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $45 +$4 +8%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 17 $75 −$30 -40%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? Jun 15 $64 +$10 +16%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 14 $127 −$127 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 10 $430 −$430 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 10 $409 +$21 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 10 $397 +$12 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 10 $370 +$27 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 10 $359 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 10 $354 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 10 $314 +$40 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 10 $306 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 10 $254 +$52 +20%
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? Apr 10 $297 −$9 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 09 $31 +$1 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 09 $30 +$2 +5%
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 09 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the April Apr 09 $87 −$87 -100%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Apr 09 $81 +$5 +6%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Apr 07 $99 +$7 +7%
LoL: Fnatic vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 06 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 05 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 30 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 30 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 30 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 30 $22 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 30 $19 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 30 $18 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 30 $16 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 30 $14 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 29 $58 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 29 $41 +$12 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 29 $35 +$11 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 29 $27 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 29 $23 +$3 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in BUY Yes 89¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $51 3h
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? BUY Yes 96¢ $49 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $45 13h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $45 13h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $75 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? BUY Yes 86¢ $64 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY 86¢ $79 3d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 41¢ $63 14d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 89¢ $64 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $430 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $409 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $397 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $370 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $359 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $354 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $314 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $306 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $254 69d
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $254 69d
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $32 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $31 69d
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 69d
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $29 69d
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the April BUY Yes 13¢ $87 69d
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of SELL Yes 100¢ $87 69d
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $159 70d
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $33 70d
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $106 71d
LoL: Fnatic vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY G2 Esports 93¢ $55 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.42 · official $60.42 (match) · 91 history records