Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:00:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3cff…c216 crypto 306 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$34,979 (+164%) realized +$34,979 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%160W / 146L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day88.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 36d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$1,926
tech 1% −$214
economics 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 50% +14.5%
≤30d 197 +5.8% -4.3% 53% 51% -5.0%
≤90d 306 +6.2% -4.0% 52% 50% -2.4%
all 306 +6.2% -4.0% 52% 50% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover88.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.0% 50% -2.4%
10% ← realistic here -13.1% 47% -11.7%
15% -21.5% 44% -20.3%
20% -29.2% 37% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$48 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$34,979
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses160 / 146
Open positions0
Markets (closed)306 / 306
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$70
Trades / day88.8
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 306 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $74 +$96 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $105 +$100 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$11 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 21 $24 +$64 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $83 −$51 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$19 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $104 +$52 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $28 +$22 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $49 +$50 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $60 +$40 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $168 −$38 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$5 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $118 +$162 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $160 +$128 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$14 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$39 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $41 +$9 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $36 +$14 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $98 +$102 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$19 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $61 +$19 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $48 +$22 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $71 −$71 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $97 −$71 -73%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $78 −$78 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $22 −$10 -42%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $106 −$55 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$10 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $13 +$7 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $321 −$321 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 09 $578 −$577 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 09 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 09 $88 +$102 +116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $85 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $79 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $6 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $40 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $7 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $0 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $23 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $33 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $8 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $7 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $20 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $42 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $37 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $27 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records