Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:07:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3C 0x3cfc…ab38 sports 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$182 (-5%) realized −$171 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%66W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days+$165
14 days−$188
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$307
crypto 5% +$70
other 3% −$63
politics 0% −$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +40.7% +27.3% 50% 50% +2.1%
≤30d 120 -1.5% -10.9% 44% 44% -13.1%
≤90d 120 -1.5% -10.9% 44% 44% -13.1%
all 147 -5.6% -14.6% 45% 44% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 44% -17.2%
10% -22.8% 43% -25.1%
15% -30.3% 41% -32.4%
20% -37.1% 34% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$20 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$171
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses66 / 81
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions4
Markets (closed)147 / 153
History coverage137d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 58¢ 53¢ $47 $43 −$4 (-9%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Over 45¢ 39¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-13%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Over 28¢ 24¢ $19 $16 −$3 (-14%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $98 −$96 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $48 +$50 +103%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $42 −$41 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $30 +$12 +40%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $18 −$18 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $18 −$18 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $14 +$32 +221%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $61 +$74 +121%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $30 +$11 +38%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $20 +$14 +67%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$19 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $16 −$16 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $61 +$46 +76%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $40 −$39 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $67 +$34 +51%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $39 −$39 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $2 +$5 +262%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $27 +$30 +114%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $2 +$27 +1290%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $2 +$11 +550%
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$7 +37%
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $27 −$26 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $19 −$19 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $38 +$56 +146%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 +$23 +149%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $22 −$21 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $12 +$10 +79%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Korea Republic win on 202 Jun 12 $6 +$14 +226%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $61 +$82 +134%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $38 −$38 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $69 −$69 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 111.5 Jun 11 $36 +$34 +95%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $98 +$66 +68%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5 Jun 09 $63 +$37 +58%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 108.5 Jun 09 $38 +$26 +68%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $46 −$46 -99%
Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $38 −$38 -99%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $36 −$35 -99%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $91 −$56 -61%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $34 −$33 -98%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 28¢ $19 32m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $20 33m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $48 33m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $98 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $98 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $48 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $42 5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $42 5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $30 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $18 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $18 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $20 8h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 76¢ $46 22h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $135 22h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $14 23h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $61 23h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $42 23h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $34 23h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $20 27h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $16 27h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $20 27h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $20 27h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $30 27h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $107 27h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $40 28h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $61 28h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $100 28h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $39 29h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $67 29h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $27 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.71 · official $76.71 (match) · 233 history records