Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:10:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3cfb…7a85 crypto 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (482 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$362 (+1%) realized +$362 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$1,471per market
Trades / day481.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3,156
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (482 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -12.1% -20.4% 47% 42% +2.2%
≤30d 19 -12.1% -20.4% 47% 42% +2.2%
≤90d 19 -12.1% -20.4% 47% 42% +2.2%
all 19 -12.1% -20.4% 47% 42% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover481.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.4% 42% +2.2%
10% -28.1% 42% -7.6%
15% ← realistic here -35.0% 42% -16.5%
20% -41.4% 32% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,525) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
29.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,123 vs −$695 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$362
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,471
Trades / day481.9
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $1,904 +$96 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $1,135 −$1,101 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 19 $1,075 +$925 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $1,070 +$930 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $2,050 +$1,303 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $1,315 +$885 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $2,170 −$153 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 19 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $131 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $55 +$23 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $1,284 −$1,246 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 19 $684 −$662 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $6,167 −$1,161 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $1,525 +$675 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $982 −$952 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 18 $110 −$20 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $1,522 −$1,480 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $4,590 +$5,143 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $130 +$130 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $33 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $36 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $6 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $20 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $40 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $30 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $19 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $12 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 11m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.23 · official $0.00 (match) · 575 history records