Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:02:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3cf1…2b39 world 91 markets active 0h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%34W / 55L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$8
sports 24% +$3
other 17% +$1
politics 8% +$2
crypto 1% −$11
finance 1% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 31 -3.3% -12.5% 29% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 48 -2.1% -11.4% 35% 2% -9.5%
all 89 -2.5% -11.8% 38% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 2% -9.7%
10% -20.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses34 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)89 / 91
History coverage466d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 49¢ 40¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-19%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $87 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $88 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $166 +$2 +1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $86 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $81 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $75 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $76 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $171 +$1 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $134 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $73 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $67 +$9 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $144 −$4 -3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $70 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $71 −$1 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $150 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $79 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $72 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $345 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $163 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $46 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $155 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $39 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $7 −$1 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $35 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $72 +$2 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $96 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $183 −$12 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $169 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 25 $176 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $82 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 20 $90 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $293 −$1 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $6 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $83 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $92 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $625 +$2 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $161 +$1 +1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $77 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $622 +$2 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $526 +$3 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $620 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $682 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? Dec 13 $1 $0 +4%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jun 26 $19 −$3 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $87 25m
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $87 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $88 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $88 22h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $65 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $63 35h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $86 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $86 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $78 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $10 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $69 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $79 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $79 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $25 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $24 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $79 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $76 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $36 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $39 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $75 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $6 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $69 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $55 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $21 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $0.00 (match) · 344 history records