Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:58:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3cef…3cd4 politics 151 markets active 0h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,458 (+1%) realized +$2,456 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate25%38W / 112L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$1,524per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$426now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$15
14 days−$40
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$114
other 36% −$273
sports 13% +$2,842
economics 5% −$13
culture 3% −$8
world 2% −$15
crypto 1% +$4
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 38 -2.4% -11.7% 5% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 89 -11.3% -19.7% 7% 4% -8.6%
all 150 +1.6% -8.1% 25% 10% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 10% -8.6%
10% -16.9% 10% -17.3%
15% -24.9% 9% -25.3%
20% -32.3% 8% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,981) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$23 · ×5.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$426
Realized+$2,456
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses38 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions1
Markets (closed)150 / 151
History coverage150d
Avg bet$1,524
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $424 $426 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $241 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $3,572 −$4 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $663 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $2,899 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $4,342 −$5 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1,498 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $1,551 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,553 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $4,579 −$7 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $2,256 −$3 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $2,730 −$4 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,242 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,484 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,567 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,685 −$3 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $1,492 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $1,501 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $1,465 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $7,558 −$10 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,648 −$3 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $1,611 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 06 $68 −$68 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $62 +$71 +114%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,440 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,489 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 01 $805 +$1 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $3,976 −$5 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,328 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,266 −$4 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $1,192 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $4,078 −$5 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $4,144 −$6 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,321 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $1,314 −$2 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 25 $66 −$66 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 May 23 $62 +$51 +83%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,689 −$3 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $3,416 −$4 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $6,902 −$8 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $2,674 −$3 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 20 $1,490 −$2 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 20 $831 −$4 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $4,318 −$6 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $1,345 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,361 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 06 $1,649 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,384 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $240 2m
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $241 1h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $372 2h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $372 5h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $452 25h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $453 26h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $662 29h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $663 31h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $433 2d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $433 2d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,219 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,221 6d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,313 6d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,315 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,497 7d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,498 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,559 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,561 7d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,549 8d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,551 8d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,550 8d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,553 8d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,412 8d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,413 8d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $874 8d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $876 9d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,318 9d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,319 9d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,241 10d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,242 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $425.89 · official $425.89 (match) · 491 history records