Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:44:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3C 0x3cee…6b62 crypto 1230 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$279 (-3%) realized −$274 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate73%901W / 328L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$8
14 days−$159
30 days−$308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$381
other 6% +$19
world 4% −$18
politics 0% −$3
economics 0% −$3
sports 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -3.3% -12.5% 73% 73% -11.8%
≤30d 1139 -1.8% -11.1% 77% 71% -13.0%
≤90d 1168 -1.8% -11.2% 77% 71% -13.3%
all 1229 -2.7% -11.9% 73% 68% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 68% -13.4%
10% -20.4% 39% -21.7%
15% -28.1% 13% -29.2%
20% -35.1% 5% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$274
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses901 / 328
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1229 / 1230
History coverage112d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$5 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$4 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$8 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 09 $9 −$9 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$3 +35%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$9 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 09 $8 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$8 -83%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$3 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 09 $9 +$2 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 3155 history records