Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:14:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3C 0x3cec…d241 sports 145 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,512 (+4%) realized +$3,507 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%77W / 66L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$682per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$917est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$905now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$485
7 days−$7,111
14 days−$1,430
30 days+$3,629
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$3,080
other 30% −$309
crypto 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -24.4% -31.6% 43% 40% -30.9%
≤30d 130 -0.9% -10.3% 55% 55% -6.0%
≤90d 143 -3.9% -13.0% 54% 53% -7.0%
all 143 -3.9% -13.0% 54% 53% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 53% -7.0%
10% -21.3% 53% -15.9%
15% -28.9% 48% -24.0%
20% -35.9% 39% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$508 vs −$551 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$905
Realized+$3,507
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses77 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$917
Open positions2
Markets (closed)143 / 145
History coverage36d
Avg bet$682
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 55¢ 56¢ $500 $503 +$3 (+1%)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Team Falcons 58¢ 58¢ $400 $402 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 18 $862 +$712 +83%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $182 +$123 +67%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $182 −$180 -99%
ITF Tokyo: Renta Tokuda vs Shunsuke Nakagawa Jun 18 $302 +$25 +8%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 18 $707 +$308 +44%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $712 −$700 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $274 −$23 -8%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $508 −$500 -98%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $153 −$150 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $505 +$241 +48%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $255 −$250 -98%
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Jun 17 $254 −$9 -3%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $507 +$473 +93%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$15 +50%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $507 +$473 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $508 −$500 -98%
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $2,690 −$182 -7%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $4,530 −$4,500 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,007 −$1,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $384 +$230 +60%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) Jun 15 $506 −$500 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $456 −$450 -99%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $3,020 +$826 +27%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $508 +$579 +114%
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $503 +$163 +32%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $706 −$700 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,006 +$260 +26%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $2,022 +$1,152 +57%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $506 +$301 +60%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $506 −$500 -99%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $106 −$105 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $508 −$500 -98%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 13 $303 −$300 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 13 $609 +$545 +90%
Game Handicap: KCB (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) Jun 12 $507 +$473 +93%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 12 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 12 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) Jun 12 $303 +$145 +48%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,514 +$660 +44%
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) Jun 11 $204 +$303 +149%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $207 +$123 +60%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 11 $202 +$122 +60%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 10 $1,010 +$528 +52%
Game Handicap: FSK (-1.5) vs PCIFIC (+1.5) Jun 10 $670 +$610 +91%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 10 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 55¢ $507 1h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $405 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $305 20h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) BUY 9z 54¢ $862 24h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY HOTU 59¢ $101 25h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY HOTU 63¢ $182 25h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $182 26h
ITF Tokyo: Renta Tokuda vs Shunsuke Nakagawa SELL Renta Tokuda 82¢ $327 26h
ITF Tokyo: Renta Tokuda vs Shunsuke Nakagawa BUY Renta Tokuda 75¢ $302 34h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $712 38h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner SELL SPARTA 49¢ $251 39h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $508 40h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 52¢ $274 40h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 26¢ $153 41h
Ghana leading at halftime? BUY No 69¢ $707 41h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 67¢ $505 2d
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 39¢ $255 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $507 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down $2 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $508 2d
France leading at halftime? BUY No 51¢ $507 2d
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz BUY Celia Cervino Ruiz 51¢ $254 2d
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 SELL Under 49¢ $2,508 2d
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2,690 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $4,530 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $1,007 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 62¢ $384 3d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) BUY XLG Gaming 58¢ $506 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $456 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $905.12 · official $905.12 (match) · 233 history records