Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:59:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3C 0x3cea…48f3 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 886d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$90 (-39%) realized −$93 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$71
crypto 34% −$13
politics 13% −$24
tech 6% +$2
culture 5% +$11
world 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-49.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -8.9% -17.5% 0% 0% -17.5%
≤30d 1 -8.9% -17.5% 0% 0% -17.5%
≤90d 2 +3.7% -6.2% 50% 50% -4.9%
all 10 -44.3% -49.6% 30% 30% -52.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.6% 30% -52.8%
10% -54.4% 10% -57.3%
15% -58.8% 10% -61.4%
20% -62.8% 10% -65.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$16 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

886d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$93
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Open positions10
Markets (closed)10 / 20
History coverage886d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? No 34¢ 33¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in June? No 14¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-29%)
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in June? No $2 $1 −$1 (-29%)
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? No $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? No $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in June? No 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 69¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 71¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Government shutdown on Saturday? Yes 71¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $28 −$2 -9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? May 09 $35 +$6 +16%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -67%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 28 $11 +$2 +19%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Feb 28 $11 +$11 +98%
Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale? Feb 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? Feb 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 10 $22 −$22 -100%
Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch? Feb 08 $39 −$39 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 69¢ $7 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 69¢ $3 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $2 1h
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in June? BUY No $2 1h
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in June? BUY No 14¢ $2 1h
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in June? BUY No 11¢ $1 1h
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? BUY No $1 1h
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? BUY No $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? BUY No 86¢ $35 84d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? SELL No $0 106d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No $1 106d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru SELL Yes 100¢ $13 106d
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners SELL Yes 99¢ $22 106d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY Yes 71¢ $22 124d
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners BUY Yes 50¢ $11 125d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru BUY Yes 84¢ $11 126d
Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 88¢ $11 126d
Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 71¢ $39 126d
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale? BUY No 26¢ $20 159d
Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? BUY No 15¢ $16 886d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.34 · official $31.35 (match) · 31 history records