Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:09:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3C 0x3cea…03d4 sports 337 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9,593 (-7%) realized −$7,561 · open −$2,032
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%126W / 209L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$417per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$849est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,745now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7,846
7 days+$4,401
14 days+$6,635
30 days+$4,802
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$12,901
other 20% +$832
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +132.7% +110.6% 62% 62% +16.9%
≤30d 65 +31.0% +18.5% 42% 42% +7.1%
≤90d 213 +3.4% -6.4% 39% 39% -6.3%
all 335 -7.0% -15.8% 38% 37% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 37% -16.2%
10% -23.9% 35% -24.2%
15% -31.2% 34% -31.5%
20% -38.0% 32% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -19% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$509 vs −$355 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$1,745
Realized−$7,561
Unrealized−$2,032
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses126 / 209
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$849
Open positions2
Markets (closed)335 / 337
History coverage169d
Avg bet$417
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 335 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal leading at halftime? No 44¢ 44¢ $1,763 $1,743 −$20 (-1%)
Austria leading at halftime? No 48¢ $2,014 $2 −$2,012 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 199 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1,011 +$1,062 +105%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $395 −$386 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 16 $100 +$67 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $612 −$600 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $335 +$605 +180%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 15 $88 +$181 +206%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 15 $109 +$105 +97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $72 +$1,045 +1444%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $4,868 +$1,037 +21%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $561 +$245 +44%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $349 +$3,051 +874%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $495 +$1,705 +344%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 15 $271 −$271 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 15 $435 +$237 +55%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 14 $571 +$423 +74%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $419 +$319 +76%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $2,510 −$2,495 -99%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $89 −$87 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $466 −$455 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1,325 −$1,305 -98%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $84 −$82 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $1,296 +$1,667 +129%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $130 −$128 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 04 $911 +$590 +65%
Spread: Gibraltar (-1.5) Jun 04 $107 +$108 +101%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $3 −$3 -97%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 4.5 Jun 02 $12 −$12 -98%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 5.5 Jun 02 $39 −$38 -97%
Will Dominican Republic win on 2026-06-03? Jun 02 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Panama vs. Dominican Republic end in a draw? Jun 02 $57 −$56 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 02 $6 +$15 +250%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 02 $100 +$105 +105%
Türkiye vs. North Macedonia: O/U 5.5 Jun 01 $93 −$91 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $45 −$44 -98%
Morocco vs. Madagascar: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $29 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se May 31 $35 −$34 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon May 31 $467 +$880 +188%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 30 $213 +$149 +70%
Korea Republic vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 4.5 May 30 $105 −$103 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 30 $43 +$53 +124%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 May 29 $595 −$582 -98%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Lilmix - Map 2 Winner May 29 $52 −$51 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs MIBR (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas May 29 $689 +$1,112 +162%
Will Crusaders win? May 29 $82 −$80 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $40 −$39 -97%
Map Handicap: FX (-1.5) vs Game Hunters (+1.5) May 28 $378 −$372 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? May 28 $180 −$177 -98%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 May 28 $61 −$59 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $199 −$175 -88%
Valorant: Grizzly Gang vs LYON (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regula May 25 $156 −$152 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 44¢ $295 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 44¢ $498 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 44¢ $499 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 44¢ $500 1h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY No 49¢ $303 1h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $580 1h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $581 1h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $582 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $476 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 24¢ $197 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 24¢ $197 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $534 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $306 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $306 12h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 59¢ $100 15h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 32¢ $88 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $335 34h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $72 37h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 50¢ $109 38h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $1,863 45h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $1,839 45h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 69¢ $561 45h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $873 45h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Under 48¢ $271 45h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $293 45h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 10¢ $349 46h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 22¢ $495 46h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 64¢ $218 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 64¢ $216 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $142 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,745.21 · official $1,745.21 (match) · 744 history records