Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:55:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3cea…e48e other 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (561 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6,860 (+2%) realized +$6,860 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate46%87W / 103L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,664per market
Trades / day561.2pace
Fees−$1,653est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$3,328
sports 31% +$1,240
world 7% +$163
crypto 2% +$138
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (561 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 190 -13.2% -21.4% 46% 13% -10.0%
≤30d 190 -13.2% -21.4% 46% 13% -10.0%
≤90d 190 -13.2% -21.4% 46% 13% -10.0%
all 190 -13.2% -21.4% 46% 13% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover561.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.4% 13% -10.0%
10% -29.0% 8% -18.6%
15% ← realistic here -35.8% 5% -26.5%
20% -42.1% 4% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$2,001) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
13.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$91 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6,860
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses87 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$1,653
Open positions0
Markets (closed)190 / 116
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$2,664
Trades / day561.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 190 Trades
no open positions (78 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $251 −$251 -100%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-21? Jun 22 $2 −$19 -1196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame Jun 22 $174 −$174 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic Jun 22 $116 −$116 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $447 −$434 -97%
Tucuman: Karim Bennani vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 22 $116 −$116 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 22 $255 −$255 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 22 $50 −$48 -97%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Chwalinska vs Andreeva Jun 22 $50 −$48 -96%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-14? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jun 22 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $48 −$48 -100%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 22 $1,080 −$1,095 -101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Perugia: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Timofey Skatov Jun 22 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-25? Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 22 $190 −$192 -101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik Jun 22 $480 −$510 -106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $28 −$28 -100%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 22 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $116 −$116 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 22 $80 −$80 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? BUY No 99¢ $113 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 92¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 92¢ $15 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 92¢ $278 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 92¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 86¢ $326 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY No 98¢ $1,892 2h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY No 98¢ $952 2h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY No 99¢ $91 2h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY No 99¢ $93 2h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY No 99¢ $48 2h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY No 99¢ $2,085 2h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY No 95¢ $1,105 2h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? SELL No 45¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? SELL No 45¢ $12 2h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? SELL No 45¢ $8 2h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? SELL No 45¢ $24 2h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? SELL No 45¢ $4 2h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY No 44¢ $35 2h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY No 44¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY No 44¢ $9 2h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? SELL Yes 52¢ $11 2h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? SELL Yes 52¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? SELL Yes 52¢ $33 2h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 50¢ $39 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records