Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:07:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3C
0x3ce6…f60a
sports · 89 markets active 1h ago
7.0score
+$3,205 +53%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,236 · open −$31
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,289
Realized+$3,236
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses52 / 16
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions21
Markets (closed)68 / 89
History coverage9d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day26.5
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 21 History 68 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,474
7 days+$2,517
14 days+$3,236
30 days+$3,236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Milwaukee Brewers 52¢ 52¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? No 47¢ 46¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $80 $75 −$5 (-6%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 56¢ 55¢ $65 $63 −$2 (-3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $85 $60 −$25 (-29%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 62¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score No 63¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? No 42¢ 40¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-4%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? No 32¢ 30¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-5%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score No 47¢ 46¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ 68¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? No 38¢ 60¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+59%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Spurs 49¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 37¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Wales win on 2026-06-06? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $51 +$15 +30%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $208 +$497 +239%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $72 +$35 +48%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $67 +$249 +372%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 12 $5 $0 -9%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $61 +$24 +40%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $77 +$82 +107%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $92 +$50 +55%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $56 +$13 +22%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $102 +$76 +74%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 +$10 +37%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $51 +$48 +93%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $307 +$317 +103%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 11 $41 +$21 +52%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $26 +$10 +38%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 10 $15 +$8 +49%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $77 +$44 +58%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $46 +$42 +91%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $51 +$31 +60%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $48 −$47 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $72 +$47 +65%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $26 +$28 +108%
Spread: Turkiye (-1.5) Jun 09 $41 −$41 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $41 +$32 +78%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $77 +$78 +101%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 09 $123 −$16 -13%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $51 +$40 +78%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $36 +$20 +56%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 09 $82 +$76 +92%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 08 $41 −$40 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $51 +$57 +112%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 07 $26 +$18 +70%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $46 +$36 +77%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $41 +$47 +115%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $31 +$7 +24%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $31 −$13 -41%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $61 +$22 +37%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $15 +$28 +180%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $144 +$136 +95%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $204 +$103 +51%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $20 +$16 +76%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $72 +$103 +143%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $154 +$114 +74%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $51 +$38 +74%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $153 +$79 +51%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $15 −$15 -97%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $25 +$11 +44%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $41 +$28 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 80% +$2,491
other 15% +$185
politics 3% +$497
tech 1% +$4
crypto 1% $0
world 0% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $31 43m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $51 1h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 52¢ $61 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $20 3h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 52¢ $20 3h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 56¢ $67 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 38¢ $10 3h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $66 3h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $705 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 11h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $78 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 94¢ $284 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 83¢ $33 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 12h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 14h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 75¢ $51 14h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 31¢ $16 14h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 49¢ $5 14h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Hurricanes 87¢ $86 14h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $5 15h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $26 15h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $52 15h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $156 15h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 60¢ $20 15h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Baltimore Orioles 90¢ $159 15h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 60¢ $41 16h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 16h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 95¢ $142 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +76%
net ROI/market (all)+32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +48.4% +34.3% 77% 77% +52.6%
≤30d 68 +46.5% +32.5% 76% 76% +53.2%
≤90d 68 +46.5% +32.5% 76% 76% +53.2%
all 68 +46.5% +32.5% 76% 76% +53.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover26.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +32.5% 76% +53.2%
10% ← realistic here +19.8% 76% +38.5%
15% +8.3% 72% +25.1%
20% -2.4% 60% +12.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,288.82 · official $1,288.86 (match) · 248 history records