Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:33:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3C 0x3ce6…1e03 sports 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$48 (+1%) realized +$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate88%74W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$98
7 days−$44
14 days+$66
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$239
other 15% −$174
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +6.9% -3.3% 86% 31% -9.4%
≤30d 84 +7.3% -2.9% 88% 36% -8.1%
≤90d 84 +7.3% -2.9% 88% 36% -8.1%
all 84 +7.3% -2.9% 88% 36% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 36% -8.1%
10% -12.2% 15% -16.9%
15% -20.7% 8% -25.0%
20% -28.5% 4% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$48 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses74 / 10
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 84
History coverage12d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Jun 18 $142 +$3 +2%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $95 +$5 +5%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $90 +$10 +11%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $19 $0 +1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $79 +$21 +27%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $145 +$55 +38%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $94 +$6 +6%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $79 +$21 +26%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $85 +$15 +18%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $98 +$2 +2%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $93 +$7 +7%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $95 +$5 +5%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $95 +$5 +5%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 16 $96 +$4 +4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $18 +$2 +11%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1 +$4 +388%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $42 +$8 +19%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $90 +$10 +11%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $90 +$10 +11%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $114 +$6 +5%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $196 +$4 +2%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $31 +$3 +10%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $93 +$7 +7%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $289 +$10 +4%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $118 −$115 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $184 −$184 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $88 −$88 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $8 +$2 +18%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $45 +$5 +11%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $46 +$4 +10%
Spread: Tunisia (-2.5) Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 +$4 +250%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $60 +$1 +2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +109%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 15 $98 +$2 +2%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $189 +$11 +6%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $7 +$3 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $95 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $10 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $11 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $12 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $16 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $40 2h
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) BUY Colombia 98¢ $44 2h
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) BUY Colombia 98¢ $97 2h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $90 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 99¢ $10 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 98¢ $9 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $198 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 67¢ $67 7h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 78¢ $78 7h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $79 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $76 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $94 13h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $79 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $96 22h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 98¢ $98 22h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $41 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $44 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $100 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 99¢ $50 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $93 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 182 history records