Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:55:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3C
0x3ce5…2661
crypto · 94 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$268 -25%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$267 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$267
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses28 / 65
Open positions1
Markets (closed)93 / 94
History coverage30d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day19.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 93 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$28
14 days−$90
30 days−$264
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Up 31¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$3 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 01 $9 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 30 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7AM ET May 30 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 30 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 30 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 30 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 30 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7AM ET May 29 $51 −$23 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 29 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6AM ET May 29 $41 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9AM ET May 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8AM ET May 28 $66 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 28 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7AM ET May 28 $50 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 28 $1 +$9 +812%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6AM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 27 $21 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 27 $32 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 27 $11 −$5 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 27 $7 +$5 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 27 $20 −$15 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$268
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $6 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $6 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -91.6% -92.4% 0% 0% -94.7%
≤30d 91 -8.4% -17.1% 31% 29% -40.9%
≤90d 93 -9.4% -18.0% 30% 28% -41.0%
all 93 -9.4% -18.0% 30% 28% -41.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 28% -41.0%
10% -25.9% 26% -46.6%
15% -33.0% 17% -51.8%
20% -39.6% 12% -56.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.56 · official $4.56 (match) · 628 history records