Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:50:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3C 0x3ce4…a2c5 world 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-6%) realized −$18 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$37
other 19% −$49
politics 18% $0
economics 18% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-36.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -47.4% -52.4% 25% 25% -23.9%
≤30d 5 -29.6% -36.3% 40% 40% -22.5%
≤90d 5 -29.6% -36.3% 40% 40% -22.5%
all 5 -29.6% -36.3% 40% 40% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.3% 40% -22.5%
10% -42.4% 40% -29.9%
15% -48.0% 40% -36.6%
20% -53.1% 20% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$25 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)5 / 9
History coverage11d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 89¢ 88¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 81¢ 75¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 55¢ 100¢ $25 $45 +$20 (+81%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 19¢ 8¢ $25 $11 −$14 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 20 $50 +$55 +110%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.33 · official $152.33 (match) · 14 history records