Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:27:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3cdc…54c7 other 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$50 (-0%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate39%38W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$9
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% −$58
other 14% +$3
finance 2% +$1
politics 1% $0
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% +$1
sports 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 29 -1.0% -10.4% 31% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 33 -0.9% -10.3% 30% 0% -10.2%
all 97 +1.3% -8.4% 39% 4% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 4% -10.1%
10% -17.1% 3% -18.7%
15% -25.2% 2% -26.5%
20% -32.5% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses38 / 59
Open positions4
Markets (closed)97 / 101
History coverage453d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $112 $112 +$0 (+0%)
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 39¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $101 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $101 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 16 $203 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $101 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $213 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $101 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $101 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $101 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $245 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $99 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $99 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $217 −$2 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $414 −$9 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $112 +$3 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $100 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $100 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $337 −$16 -5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $193 +$1 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $97 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $133 −$2 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $106 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $1 $0 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $55 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $112 −$26 -23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $143 −$5 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $160 −$18 -11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $150 +$11 +7%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $1,029 +$3 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 14 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 12 $1,133 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $864 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Feb 01 $10 $0 -4%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Dec 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Dec 16 $9 $0 +2%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $7 +$2 +24%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $7 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Nov 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $14 −$1 -4%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $18 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $2 $0 +4%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Sumy by December 31? Oct 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Oct 08 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $1 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $112 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $99 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $2 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $101 10h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $56 25h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $45 25h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $43 25h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $59 25h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 75¢ $68 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 75¢ $33 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 75¢ $101 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $102 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $102 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $101 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $101 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $102 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $101 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $101 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $101 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $91 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $10 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $101 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $112 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $112 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $101 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $101 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $101 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $102 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $9 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $92 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.04 · official $111.56 (match) · 444 history records