Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:43:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3cdb…7e15 crypto 68 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$26 (-13%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate44%30W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day71.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -7.4% -16.2% 44% 32% -22.5%
≤30d 68 -7.4% -16.2% 44% 32% -22.5%
≤90d 68 -7.4% -16.2% 44% 32% -22.5%
all 68 -7.4% -16.2% 44% 32% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 32% -22.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 32% -29.9%
15% -31.6% 29% -36.7%
20% -38.3% 28% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses30 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day71.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 149 history records