Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:50:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3cdb…5049 crypto 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$241 (+18%) realized +$241 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate37%11W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$409
7 days+$409
14 days+$285
30 days+$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$115
other 19% +$309
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-34.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +149.1% +125.4% 100% 50% +228.4%
≤30d 30 -27.9% -34.8% 37% 27% +10.3%
≤90d 30 -27.9% -34.8% 37% 27% +10.3%
all 30 -27.9% -34.8% 37% 27% +10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.8% 27% +10.3%
10% -41.0% 20% -0.3%
15% -46.7% 20% -9.9%
20% -51.9% 20% -18.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$24 · ×2.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$241
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses11 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage16d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $139 +$408 +293%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$22 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $52 −$11 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 09 $156 −$134 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 09 $72 −$66 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $33 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 09 $133 +$67 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$11 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $104 +$87 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 09 $265 +$35 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 09 $11 −$9 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$7 +230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 09 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 94¢ $100 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 92¢ $36 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 91¢ $105 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 88¢ $103 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 61¢ $203 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 22¢ $71 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 17¢ $68 4h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 13d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $125 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 14d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 14d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $0 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $41 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records