Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:42:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3C 0x3cd6…6fb8 other 149 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,201 (-2%) realized −$1,208 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate86%126W / 21L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$394per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$305now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$609
crypto 24% −$396
tech 6% +$50
finance 2% +$6
sports 1% +$6
politics 1% −$259
weather 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +4.1% -5.8% 100% 0% -5.0%
≤30d 2 +4.1% -5.8% 100% 0% -5.0%
≤90d 2 +4.1% -5.8% 100% 0% -5.0%
all 147 -3.5% -12.7% 86% 0% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 0% -11.4%
10% -21.1% 0% -19.9%
15% -28.7% 0% -27.6%
20% -35.7% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$109 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$305
Realized−$1,208
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses126 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)147 / 149
History coverage126d
Avg bet$394
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 28? Yes 91¢ 96¢ $198 $206 +$9 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 28? No 96¢ 95¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $100 +$7 +7%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 27 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Mar 11 $1,086 −$272 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 10 $600 −$24 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 10 $2,013 −$288 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 10 $272 +$10 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $1,086 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 09 $1,000 −$27 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 09 $1,000 +$20 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 09 $664 +$28 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 08 $500 −$7 -2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 08 $500 +$34 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? Mar 07 $1,200 +$46 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? Mar 07 $1,500 −$67 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? Mar 07 $800 +$14 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? Mar 07 $700 +$59 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? Mar 07 $1,200 +$34 +3%
Meta (META) Up or Down on March 6? Mar 06 $400 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 06 $1,942 +$66 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 06 $900 +$37 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 05 $2,238 +$35 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 05 $100 +$6 +6%
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on March 4? Mar 05 $50 +$4 +8%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on March 4? Mar 05 $200 +$2 +1%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on March 4? Mar 05 $200 +$2 +1%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on March 4? Mar 05 $200 +$2 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 4? Mar 05 $300 +$3 +1%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $370 on March 5? Mar 04 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? Mar 04 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? Mar 04 $1,016 +$64 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 03 $500 +$11 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 03 $997 +$9 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 03 $500 −$7 -2%
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 03 $1,000 +$24 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from February 24 to Mar 03 $339 −$259 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026? Mar 02 $717 +$63 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026? Mar 02 $700 −$288 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026? Mar 02 $200 +$16 +8%
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Mar 02 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Mar 02 $400 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Mar 01 $200 −$200 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Mar 01 $300 −$212 -71%
Solana Up or Down - March 1, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Mar 01 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Mar 01 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Mar 01 $200 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - February 28, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Mar 01 $200 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - February 28, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Mar 01 $300 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Mar 01 $400 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026 Feb 28 $1,866 +$81 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $98 33m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 28? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 35m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 28? BUY No 96¢ $100 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $107 14h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 15h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 16h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $814 108d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1,086 109d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $303 109d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $300 109d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $801 110d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $282 110d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $924 110d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $924 110d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $272 110d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $272 110d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $589 110d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $500 110d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,089 110d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1,086 110d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $300 110d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $306 110d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,020 110d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $300 110d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,000 110d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $692 110d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $667 110d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $164 111d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $500 111d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $200 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $305.04 · official $305.04 (match) · 429 history records