Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:12:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3cd6…9a5c crypto 1628 markets active 6d ago coverage 110d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 110d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$300 (-4%) realized −$300 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%876W / 849L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$592
7 days−$647
14 days−$445
30 days−$505
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$159
finance 4% −$23
world 1% +$17
weather 0% −$3
other 0% −$5
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 212 +71.2% +54.9% 23% 23% -52.6%
≤30d 886 +20.1% +8.7% 50% 48% -14.6%
≤90d 1476 +10.3% -0.2% 53% 52% -13.9%
all 1725 +7.7% -2.5% 51% 49% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.5% 49% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -11.8% 47% -23.1%
15% -20.4% 40% -30.5%
20% -28.2% 27% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$300
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses876 / 849
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1725 / 1628
History coverage110d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1725 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -358%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$2 +1886%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$6 -3950%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$6 +508%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -2667%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$4 -122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$5 -2401%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$5 +421%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$7 -1099%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$5 -8510%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$6 +2811%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$6 +8271%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$5 -786%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$7 -8694%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$2 +855%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +1098%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$3 -534%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$5 -194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$9 -315%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$5 -6349%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -5944%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$6 -170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -1864%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$4 -2996%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +420%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -749%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$3 +685%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$6 -1752%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$10 -308%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records