trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? | Jun 11 | $5,955 | −$5,872 | -99% |
| Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jun 11 | $2,386 | −$708 | -30% |
| Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? | Jun 11 | $595 | −$586 | -98% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 11 | $2,671 | −$2,638 | -99% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 09 | $1,789 | +$1,958 | +109% |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | May 24 | $2,013 | +$2,487 | +124% |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | May 21 | $1,835 | −$1,800 | -98% |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | May 18 | $3,810 | +$4,667 | +122% |
| Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | May 06 | $563 | −$548 | -97% |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | Apr 26 | $1,724 | −$1,700 | -99% |
| Will Nickeil Alexander-Walker win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Play | Apr 25 | $705 | +$15 | +2% |
| Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? | Apr 17 | $1,919 | −$276 | -14% |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Apr 13 | $1,227 | +$2,118 | +173% |
| Will Evan Bouchard win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy? | Apr 10 | $327 | −$327 | -100% |
| Will Zach Werenski win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy? | Apr 10 | $101 | −$101 | -100% |
| Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Apr 08 | $11,943 | −$11,392 | -95% |
| Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Mar 06 | $1,400 | −$66 | -5% |
| Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Mar 04 | $4,422 | +$1,029 | +23% |
| Men's Group A - Canada vs. Switzerland | Feb 13 | $3,403 | −$3,403 | -100% |
| Will Cooper Kupp win the Super Bowl LX MVP? | Feb 09 | $687 | −$687 | -100% |
| Will Jason Myers win the Super Bowl LX MVP? | Feb 08 | $39 | −$39 | -100% |
| Will Andres Borregales win the Super Bowl LX MVP? | Feb 08 | $18 | −$18 | -100% |
| Will TreVeyon Henderson win the Super Bowl LX MVP? | Feb 08 | $259 | −$259 | -100% |
| Will Milton Williams win the Super Bowl LX MVP? | Feb 08 | $79 | −$79 | -100% |
| Will Hunter Henry win the Super Bowl LX MVP? | Feb 08 | $241 | −$241 | -100% |
| Will Stefon Diggs win the Super Bowl LX MVP? | Feb 08 | $836 | −$836 | -100% |
| Avalanche vs. Senators | Jan 29 | $3,000 | −$3,000 | -100% |
| Sabres vs. Maple Leafs | Jan 28 | $2,940 | +$3,060 | +104% |
| Capitals vs. Flames | Jan 25 | $1,768 | +$1,371 | +78% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jan 23 | $11,293 | −$11,293 | -100% |
| Kings vs. Lakers | Dec 29 | $1,276 | −$1,276 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -44.0% | -49.4% | 20% | 20% | -63.0% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -9.3% | -17.9% | 38% | 38% | -20.3% |
| ≤90d | 16 | -25.6% | -32.7% | 31% | 25% | -43.3% |
| all | 31 | -42.2% | -47.7% | 26% | 23% | -48.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -47.7% | 23% | -48.3% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -52.7% | 23% | -53.3% |
| 15% | -57.3% | 19% | -57.8% |
| 20% | -61.5% | 19% | -61.9% |