Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:17:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3cd4…05d1 crypto 50 markets active 21h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$516 (-36%) realized −$516 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%13W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day27.7pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$629
other 5% +$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -4.3% -13.4% 27% 27% -45.5%
≤30d 49 -4.3% -13.4% 27% 27% -45.5%
≤90d 49 -4.3% -13.4% 27% 27% -45.5%
all 49 -4.3% -13.4% 27% 27% -45.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 27% -45.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 27% -50.7%
15% -29.3% 27% -55.4%
20% -36.2% 27% -59.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +77% → late -83% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$31 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$516
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses13 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage6d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day27.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $305 −$305 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $327 −$327 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $36 −$34 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$33 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$23 +90%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $10 +$73 +712%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $116 +$179 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$14 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$8 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$7 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$9 +404%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $58 +$109 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$99 +943%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $27 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 4¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 203 history records