Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:55:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3cd3…8604 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 271d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate21%6W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$1
world 36% $0
politics 16% −$1
sports 4% $0
culture 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 7 -0.7% -10.1% 29% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 7 -0.7% -10.1% 29% 0% -9.5%
all 29 -2.9% -12.1% 21% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 0% -9.8%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

271d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses6 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage271d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $66 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $66 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $109 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 -6%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $132 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $51 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $14 $0 +1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 23 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 23 $7 −$1 -9%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 17 $25 $0 -0%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 23 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 21 $3 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 21 $8 $0 -1%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 23 $14 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 23 $26 $0 -2%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 23 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $27 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $27 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $28 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 13h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 13h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 13h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $66 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $7 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $28 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $31 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $23 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $43 22h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $30 33h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $5 33h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $35 33h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 33h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $73 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 39h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $32 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $33 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $20 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $46 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $50 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $16 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $58 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $8 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $4 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $32 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $36 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.37 · official $26.57 (match) · 338 history records